Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: UC Davis 75%, San Jose St 25% at San Jose St.
UC Davis' win probability against San Jose St is trending down — from 78% to 75% over the last 6 updates.
UC Davis' win probability against San Jose St is trending down — from 83% to 80% over the last 6 updates.
UC Davis' win probability against San Jose St has held at 84% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.