Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: S Illinois 87%, Valparaiso 13% at S Illinois.
S Illinois' win probability against Valparaiso is trending down — from 82% to 78% over the last 6 updates.
S Illinois' win probability against Valparaiso is trending down — from 86% to 83% over the last 6 updates.
S Illinois' win probability against Valparaiso has held at 87% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.