Duke at North Carolina Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Duke by 1.76
TOTAL POINTS
130
UPDATED
Tuesday, April 7, 2026
RATINGS
North Carolina
Duke 
|
97
A+
|
Overall |
98
A+
|
|
97
A+
|
Power |
98
A+
|
|
96
A
|
Offensive |
97
A+
|
|
98
A+
|
Defensive |
99
A+
|
|
93
A-
|
SoS (Current) |
99
A+
|
|
93
A-
|
SoS (Future) |
99
A+
|
RANKINGS
North Carolina
Duke
| 15 | Overall | 9 |
| 19 | Power | 8 |
| 31 | Offensive | 22 |
| 11 | Defensive | 5 |
| 58 | SoS (Current) | 3 |
| 58 | SoS (Future) | 3 |
Duke#955%
North Carolina#1545%Wk 24 (Apr 7), 2025-26: Duke 55%, North Carolina 45% at North Carolina.
Duke's win probability against North Carolina is trending down — from 58% to 55% over the last 6 weeks.
Duke's win probability against North Carolina is trending down — from 67% to 64% over the last 6 weeks.
Duke's win probability against North Carolina has held at 73% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Duke favored
North Carolina favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | At North Carolina | Neutral | At Duke |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 64% | 73% | 80% |
| Wk 1 | 56% | 65% | 73% |
| Wk 2 | 70% | 78% | 84% |
| Wk 3 | 32% | 41% | 50% |
| Wk 4 | 20% | 27% | 35% |
| Wk 5 | 17% | 23% | 31% |
| Wk 6 | 17% | 24% | 32% |
| Wk 7 | 21% | 28% | 37% |
| Wk 8 | 33% | 42% | 51% |
| Wk 9 | 42% | 51% | 61% |
| Wk 10 | 50% | 59% | 68% |
| Wk 11 | 50% | 59% | 68% |
| Wk 12 | 53% | 63% | 71% |
| Wk 13 | 56% | 65% | 73% |
| Wk 14 | 56% | 65% | 73% |
| Wk 15 | 58% | 67% | 75% |
| Wk 16 | 57% | 66% | 74% |
| Wk 17 | 59% | 68% | 76% |
| Wk 18 | 58% | 67% | 75% |
| Wk 19 | 55% | 64% | 72% |
| Wk 20 | 55% | 64% | 73% |
| Wk 21 | 53% | 62% | 71% |
| Wk 22 | 55% | 64% | 72% |
| Wk 23 | 55% | 64% | 73% |
| Wk 24 | 55% | 64% | 73% |
RECORDS
North Carolina
Duke
|
1-1 (50%) |
Head to Head |
1-1 (50%) |
|
28-8 (77.8%) |
Overall |
27-9 (75%) |
|
15-2 (88.2%) |
Home |
14-1 (93.3%) |
|
8-3 (72.7%) |
Away |
10-3 (76.9%) |
|
2-7 (22.2%) |
Versus Top 25 |
7-7 (50%) |
|
15-8 (65.2%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
20-9 (69%) |
|
13-0 (100%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
7-0 (100%) |
|
7-3 (70%) |
Last 10 Games |
7-3 (70%) |
SUPERLATIVES
North Carolina
Duke
| #9 Duke | Best Win | #8 LSU |
| #62 Stanford | Worst Loss | #67 South Florida |
| 52 pts vs #197 SMU | Largest MOV | 59 pts vs #197 SMU |
| 23 pts vs #17 Notre Dame | Largest MOD | 30 pts vs #1 UCLA |
OTHER STATISTICS
North Carolina
Duke
| 74.6 | Points per Game | 74.1 |
| 59.1 | Points Against | 59.7 |
| 78.1 | Home PPG | 83.2 |
| 55.2 | Home PA | 54.9 |
| 71.5 | Away PPG | 72.3 |
| 60.2 | Away PA | 61.2 |
| 710-475 | Opponent Record | 807-409 |
| 113.5 | Avg Opponent Rank | 70.8 |
| W 8 | Longest Streak | W 17 |
| L 1 | Current Streak | L 1 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
North Carolina
Duke
| Mar 27 | #4 Connecticut (38-1) | L42-63 | Mar 29 | #1 UCLA (37-1) | L58-70 |
| Mar 22 | vs #19 Maryland (24-9) | W74-66 | Mar 27 | at #8 LSU (29-6) | W87-85 |
| Mar 20 | vs W Illinois (23-6) | W82-51 | Mar 22 | vs #20 Baylor (25-9) | W69-46 |
| Mar 7 | #14 Louisville (29-8) | L57-65 | Mar 20 | vs Col Charleston (25-6) | W81-64 |
| Mar 6 | Virginia Tech (23-10) | W85-68 | Mar 8 | #14 Louisville (29-8) | W70-65 |
| Mar 1 | vs #9 Duke (27-9) | W74-69 | Mar 7 | #17 Notre Dame (25-11) | W65-63 |
| Feb 26 | at Virginia (22-12) | W82-70 | Mar 6 | Clemson (21-12) | W60-46 |
| Feb 22 | vs Pittsburgh (8-22) | W78-50 | Mar 1 | at #15 North Carolina (28-8) | L69-74 |
| Feb 19 | at Virginia Tech (23-10) | W66-63 | Feb 26 | vs Florida St (10-21) | W80-52 |
| Feb 15 | at #9 Duke (27-9) | L68-72 | Feb 22 | at Clemson (21-12) | L51-53 |
