Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: Iowa St 86%, Belmont 14% at a neutral site.
Iowa St's win probability against Belmont is trending down — from 85% to 82% over the last 6 updates.
Iowa St's win probability against Belmont has held at 86% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Iowa St's win probability against Belmont has held at 89% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.