Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: IL Chicago 61%, UTRGV 39% at IL Chicago.
IL Chicago's win probability against UTRGV has swung between 46% and 51% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 49% now.
IL Chicago's win probability against UTRGV has held at 55% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
IL Chicago's win probability against UTRGV is trending down — from 64% to 61% over the last 6 updates.