Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 28), 2026-27: Duke 53%, Louisville 47% at Duke.
Duke's win probability against Louisville has swung between 40% and 48% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 40% now.
Duke's win probability against Louisville has swung between 46% and 54% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 46% now.
Duke's win probability against Louisville has swung between 53% and 61% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 53% now.