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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 5 (Oct 13), 2026-27: Tampa Bay 54%, Green Bay 46% at Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay's win probability against Green Bay has swung between 38% and 49% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 40% now.
Tampa Bay's win probability against Green Bay has swung between 45% and 56% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 47% now.
Tampa Bay's win probability against Green Bay has swung between 52% and 63% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 54% now.