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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 5 (Oct 13), 2026-27: New England 68%, Denver 32% at New England.
New England's win probability against Denver has swung between 41% and 54% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 54% now.
New England's win probability against Denver has swung between 48% and 61% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 61% now.
New England's win probability against Denver has swung between 55% and 68% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 68% now.