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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 5 (Oct 13), 2026-27: Jacksonville 57%, Baltimore 43% at Baltimore.
Jacksonville's win probability against Baltimore has swung between 38% and 63% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 57% now.
Jacksonville's win probability against Baltimore has swung between 45% and 69% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 64% now.
Jacksonville's win probability against Baltimore has swung between 52% and 75% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 70% now.