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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 2 (Oct 30), 2026-27: Denver 65%, Phoenix 35% at Denver.
Denver's win probability against Phoenix has swung between 51% and 57% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 53% now.
Denver's win probability against Phoenix has swung between 57% and 63% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 59% now.
Denver's win probability against Phoenix has swung between 63% and 69% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 65% now.