Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 3 (Sep 13), 2026-27: Wake Forest 98%, Merrimack 2% at Wake Forest.
Wake Forest's win probability against Merrimack has held at 98% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.