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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Virginia 85%, California 15% at Virginia.
Virginia's win probability against California has swung between 65% and 86% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 77% now.
Virginia's win probability against California has swung between 71% and 89% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 81% now.
Virginia's win probability against California has swung between 76% and 92% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 85% now.