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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Colgate 60%, Villanova 40% at Villanova.
Colgate's win probability against Villanova has swung between 45% and 82% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 60% now.
Colgate's win probability against Villanova has swung between 51% and 86% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 66% now.
Colgate's win probability against Villanova has swung between 58% and 89% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 71% now.