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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Texas 94%, Arkansas 6% at Texas.
Texas' win probability against Arkansas has swung between 89% and 96% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 90% now.
Texas' win probability against Arkansas has swung between 92% and 97% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 93% now.
Texas' win probability against Arkansas has held at 94% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.