Merrimack at Tarleton St Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Tarleton St by 30.52
TOTAL POINTS
56
UPDATED
Sunday, October 25, 2026
See this week's FCS predictions
RATINGS
Merrimack
Tarleton 
|
71
C-
|
Overall |
97
A+
|
|
70
C-
|
Power |
97
A+
|
|
67
D+
|
Offensive |
97
A+
|
|
74
C
|
Defensive |
91
A-
|
|
72
C-
|
SoS (Current) |
68
D+
|
|
75
C
|
SoS (Full Season) |
78
C+
|
|
73
C-
|
SoR (Current) |
99
A+
|
|
74
C
|
SoR (Full Season) |
98
A+
|
RANKINGS
Merrimack
Tarleton
| 91 #390 overall |
Overall | 6 #75 overall |
| 96 #259 overall |
Power | 9 #137 overall |
| 105 #279 overall |
Offensive | 7 #115 overall |
| 84 #237 overall |
Defensive | 28 #160 overall |
| 89 #255 overall |
SoS (Current) | 103 #289 overall |
| 79 #231 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 68 #215 overall |
Tarleton St#696%
Merrimack#914%Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Tarleton St 96%, Merrimack 4% at Tarleton St.
Tarleton St's win probability against Merrimack has held at 93% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Tarleton St's win probability against Merrimack has held at 94% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Tarleton St's win probability against Merrimack has held at 96% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Tarleton St favored
Merrimack favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | At Merrimack | Neutral | At Tarleton St |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 95% | 96% | 97% |
| Wk 1 | 90% | 93% | 94% |
| Wk 2 | 96% | 97% | 97% |
| Wk 3 | 91% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 4 | 89% | 92% | 94% |
| Wk 5 | 91% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 6 | 92% | 94% | 95% |
| Wk 7 | 92% | 94% | 96% |
| Wk 8 | 93% | 94% | 96% |
| Wk 9 | 93% | 94% | 96% |
RECORDS
Merrimack
Tarleton
|
0-1 (0%) |
Head to Head |
1-0 (100%) |
|
3-5 (37.5%) |
Overall |
8-0 (100%) |
|
2-1 (66.7%) |
Home |
4-0 (100%) |
|
1-4 (20%) |
Away |
4-0 (100%) |
|
0-1 (0%) |
Versus FCS Top 25 |
1-0 (100%) |
|
0-4 (0%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
1-0 (100%) |
|
3-1 (75%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
7-0 (100%) |
|
2-3 (40%) |
Last 5 Games |
5-0 (100%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Merrimack
Tarleton
| #451 New Haven | Best Win | #133 Austin Peay |
| #306 Yale | Worst Loss | None |
| 9 pts vs #538 Maine | Largest MOV | 43 pts vs #506 West Georgia |
| 35 pts vs #200 Delaware | Largest MOD | None |
OTHER STATISTICS
Merrimack
Tarleton
| 17.9 | Points per Game | 41.9 |
| 28.8 | Points Against | 22.6 |
| 16 | Home PPG | 49.8 |
| 20.3 | Home PA | 26.5 |
| 19 | Away PPG | 34 |
| 33.8 | Away PA | 18.8 |
| 26-34 | Opponent Record | 23-43 |
| 322 | Avg Opponent Rank | 347 |
| L 2 | Longest Streak | W 8 |
| W 1 | Current Streak | W 8 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Merrimack
Tarleton
| Oct 24 | vs New Hampshire (2-7) | W24-17 | Oct 24 | at West Georgia (1-7) | W49-6 |
| Oct 17 | at Dartmouth (3-3) | L21-27 | Oct 17 | vs Central Arkansas (2-6) | W49-35 |
| Oct 3 | at Yale (3-3) | L24-41 | Oct 10 | at Austin Peay (7-2) | W40-32 |
| Sep 26 | vs New Haven (2-6) | W17-10 | Oct 3 | vs Chicago St (1-7) | W56-21 |
| Sep 19 | at Tarleton St (8-0) | L20-45 | Sep 19 | vs Merrimack (3-5) | W45-20 |
| Sep 12 | at Maine (1-7) | W23-14 | Sep 12 | at McNeese St (3-5) | W27-24 |
| Sep 3 | at Delaware (3-4) | L7-42 | Sep 5 | at Bowling Green (2-6) | W20-13 |
| Aug 28 | vs Rhode Island (4-4) | L7-34 | Aug 29 | vs Prairie View A&M (4-5) | W49-30 |