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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Northern Illinois 56%, UTEP 44% at Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois' win probability against UTEP has swung between 44% and 68% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 44% now.
Northern Illinois' win probability against UTEP has swung between 50% and 73% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 50% now.
Northern Illinois' win probability against UTEP has swung between 56% and 78% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 56% now.