Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Northern Arizona 53%, Montana 47% at Northern Arizona.
Northern Arizona's win probability against Montana has swung between 25% and 44% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 40% now.
Northern Arizona's win probability against Montana has swung between 31% and 51% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 46% now.
Northern Arizona's win probability against Montana has swung between 36% and 57% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 53% now.