Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
Wk 3 (Sep 13), 2026-27: New Mexico 99%, Mercyhurst 1% at New Mexico.
New Mexico's win probability against Mercyhurst has held at 99% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.