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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Iowa 65%, Minnesota 35% at Minnesota.
Iowa's win probability against Minnesota has swung between 65% and 79% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 65% now.
Iowa's win probability against Minnesota has swung between 71% and 83% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 71% now.
Iowa's win probability against Minnesota has swung between 76% and 86% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 76% now.