Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Iowa 98%, Northern Iowa 2% at Iowa.
Iowa's win probability against Northern Iowa has held at 97% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Iowa's win probability against Northern Iowa has held at 98% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.