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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Cincinnati 52%, Iowa St 48% at Iowa St.
Cincinnati's win probability against Iowa St has swung between 25% and 60% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 52% now.
Cincinnati's win probability against Iowa St has swung between 30% and 66% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 58% now.
Cincinnati's win probability against Iowa St has swung between 36% and 72% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 64% now.