Nelson TX at Howard Payne Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Howard Payne by 25.59
TOTAL POINTS
54
UPDATED
Sunday, October 25, 2026
See this week's D3 predictions
RATINGS
*Ratings are relative to Division (FBS, FCS, D2, D3, NAIA)
Nelson
Howard Payne 
|
71
C-
|
Overall |
89
B+
|
|
70
C-
|
Power |
91
A-
|
|
68
D+
|
Offensive |
93
A-
|
|
71
C-
|
Defensive |
89
B+
|
|
97
A+
|
SoS (Current) |
73
C-
|
|
92
A-
|
SoS (Full Season) |
80
B-
|
|
67
D+
|
SoR (Current) |
92
A-
|
|
68
D+
|
SoR (Full Season) |
89
B+
|
RANKINGS
NelsonNAIA
Howard PayneD3
| 69 #647 overall |
Overall | 59 #330 overall |
| 71 #621 overall |
Power | 47 #480 overall |
| 76 #633 overall |
Offensive | 38 #467 overall |
| 69 #617 overall |
Defensive | 58 #494 overall |
| 7 #416 overall |
SoS (Current) | 157 #628 overall |
| 17 #468 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 116 #534 overall |
Howard PayneD3 #5993%Nelson TXNAIA #697%Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Howard Payne 93%, Nelson TX 7% at Howard Payne.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX has swung between 85% and 96% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 88% now.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX has swung between 88% and 97% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 91% now.
Howard Payne's win probability against Nelson TX has swung between 91% and 97% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 93% now.
Howard Payne favored
Nelson TX favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | At Nelson TX | Neutral | At Howard Payne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 77% | 81% | 85% |
| Wk 1 | 69% | 74% | 79% |
| Wk 2 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 3 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 4 | 90% | 92% | 94% |
| Wk 5 | 95% | 96% | 97% |
| Wk 6 | 96% | 97% | 97% |
| Wk 7 | 94% | 96% | 97% |
| Wk 8 | 87% | 90% | 93% |
| Wk 9 | 88% | 91% | 93% |
RECORDS
Nelson
Howard Payne
|
0-1 (0%) |
Head to Head |
1-0 (100%) |
|
1-7 (12.5%) |
Overall |
5-1 (83.3%) |
|
1-4 (20%) |
Home |
1-0 (100%) |
|
0-3 (0%) |
Away |
3-1 (75%) |
|
0-2 (0%) |
Versus Own Division Top 25 |
0-1 (0%) |
|
0-7 (0%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
1-1 (50%) |
|
1-0 (100%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
4-0 (100%) |
|
0-5 (0%) |
Last 5 Games |
4-1 (80%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Nelson
Howard Payne
| #678 Arkansas Baptist | Best Win | #476 Wayland Baptist |
| #557 MidAmerica Nazarene | Worst Loss | #165 Mary Hardin-Baylor |
| 7 pts vs #678 Arkansas Baptist | Largest MOV | 49 pts vs #702 Pacific OR |
| 52 pts vs #146 Hardin-Simmons | Largest MOD | 23 pts vs #165 Mary Hardin-Baylor |
OTHER STATISTICS
Nelson
Howard Payne
| 17.6 | Points per Game | 38.8 |
| 36.1 | Points Against | 19.2 |
| 18.4 | Home PPG | 44 |
| 34.6 | Home PA | 16 |
| 16.3 | Away PPG | 34.3 |
| 38.7 | Away PA | 17.8 |
| 40-21 | Opponent Record | 19-25 |
| 425 | Avg Opponent Rank | 531.8 |
| L 5 | Longest Streak | W 4 |
| L 5 | Current Streak | W 1 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Nelson
Howard Payne
| Oct 24 | vs Hardin-Simmons (6-0) | L0-52 | Oct 17 | at Schreiner (3-4) | W41-21 |
| Oct 17 | vs Louisiana Christian (8-1) | L23-31 | Oct 10 | at Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1) | L10-33 |
| Oct 10 | vs OK Panhandle St (4-4) | L28-35 | Oct 3 | vs Nelson TX (1-7) | W44-16 |
| Oct 3 | at Howard Payne (5-1) | L16-44 | Sep 26 | Simpson IA (3-4) | W52-28 |
| Sep 26 | at Texas Wesleyan (4-4) | L16-41 | Sep 19 | at Wayland Baptist (5-3) | W37-17 |
| Sep 19 | vs Arkansas Baptist (2-7) | W35-28 | Sep 4 | at Pacific OR (1-6) | W49-0 |
| Sep 12 | at Ottawa AZ (5-1) | L17-31 | |||
| Aug 29 | vs MidAmerica Nazarene (6-3) | L6-27 |