Morehead St at Dayton Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Dayton by 29.34
TOTAL POINTS
60
UPDATED
Sunday, October 25, 2026
See this week's FCS predictions
RATINGS
Morehead St
Dayton 
|
61
D-
|
Overall |
89
B+
|
|
60
D-
|
Power |
69
D+
|
|
61
D-
|
Offensive |
69
D+
|
|
60
D-
|
Defensive |
70
C-
|
|
62
D-
|
SoS (Current) |
61
D-
|
|
62
D-
|
SoS (Full Season) |
60
D-
|
|
62
D-
|
SoR (Current) |
86
B
|
|
61
D-
|
SoR (Full Season) |
79
C+
|
RANKINGS
Morehead St
Dayton
| 124 #572 overall |
Overall | 33 #187 overall |
| 127 #435 overall |
Power | 99 #262 overall |
| 125 #393 overall |
Offensive | 100 #269 overall |
| 128 #495 overall |
Defensive | 96 #254 overall |
| 122 #393 overall |
SoS (Current) | 125 #413 overall |
| 120 #363 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 128 #446 overall |
Dayton#3395%
Morehead St#1245%Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Dayton 95%, Morehead St 5% at Dayton.
Dayton's win probability against Morehead St is trending up — from 72% to 92% over the last 6 weeks.
Dayton's win probability against Morehead St is trending up — from 77% to 94% over the last 6 weeks.
Dayton's win probability against Morehead St is trending up — from 82% to 95% over the last 6 weeks.
Dayton favored
Morehead St favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | At Morehead St | Neutral | At Dayton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 69% | 75% | 79% |
| Wk 1 | 67% | 72% | 77% |
| Wk 2 | 64% | 70% | 75% |
| Wk 3 | 72% | 77% | 82% |
| Wk 4 | 85% | 88% | 91% |
| Wk 5 | 86% | 89% | 92% |
| Wk 6 | 88% | 91% | 93% |
| Wk 7 | 89% | 92% | 94% |
| Wk 8 | 93% | 95% | 96% |
| Wk 9 | 92% | 94% | 95% |
RECORDS
Morehead St
Dayton
|
0-1 (0%) |
Head to Head |
1-0 (100%) |
|
2-6 (25%) |
Overall |
6-1 (85.7%) |
|
2-2 (50%) |
Home |
4-0 (100%) |
|
0-4 (0%) |
Away |
2-1 (66.7%) |
|
0-1 (0%) |
Versus FCS Top 25 |
0-0 (0%) |
|
0-5 (0%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
1-0 (100%) |
|
2-1 (66.7%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
5-1 (83.3%) |
|
1-4 (20%) |
Last 5 Games |
4-1 (80%) |
SUPERLATIVES
Morehead St
Dayton
| #597 Stetson | Best Win | #175 Butler |
| #521 Davidson | Worst Loss | #458 Drake |
| 51 pts vs #715 Kentucky Christian | Largest MOV | 28 pts vs #572 Morehead St |
| 57 pts vs #257 Western Illinois | Largest MOD | 8 pts vs #458 Drake |
OTHER STATISTICS
Morehead St
Dayton
| 28 | Points per Game | 32 |
| 43.3 | Points Against | 20 |
| 39 | Home PPG | 41.5 |
| 33.5 | Home PA | 21.8 |
| 17 | Away PPG | 19.3 |
| 53 | Away PA | 17.7 |
| 31-33 | Opponent Record | 20-36 |
| 413.9 | Avg Opponent Rank | 421.1 |
| L 5 | Longest Streak | W 3 |
| W 1 | Current Streak | W 3 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Morehead St
Dayton
| Oct 24 | vs Stetson (1-7) | W38-31 | Oct 24 | vs San Diego (3-5) | W37-32 |
| Oct 17 | at Davidson (3-5) | L31-34 | Oct 17 | at Butler (6-2) | W19-9 |
| Oct 10 | at Dayton (6-1) | L28-56 | Oct 10 | vs Morehead St (2-6) | W56-28 |
| Oct 3 | vs Valparaiso (4-4) | L3-37 | Oct 3 | at Drake (2-6) | L22-30 |
| Sep 19 | at Western Illinois (4-4) | L2-59 | Sep 19 | at Eastern Kentucky (3-5) | W17-14 |
| Sep 12 | at Austin Peay (7-2) | L7-63 | Sep 12 | vs Thomas More (2-6) | W30-7 |
| Sep 3 | vs Kentucky Christian (2-6) | W75-24 | Aug 29 | vs Fairmont St (2-6) | W43-20 |
| Aug 27 | vs Ohio Dominican (4-4) | L40-42 |