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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: New Mexico 67%, UC Irvine 33% at UC Irvine.
New Mexico's win probability against UC Irvine is trending down — from 70% to 67% over the last 6 updates.
New Mexico's win probability against UC Irvine has swung between 73% and 78% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 73% now.
New Mexico's win probability against UC Irvine has held at 78% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.