Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: UC Davis 61%, Portland 39% at UC Davis.
UC Davis' win probability against Portland has held at 46% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
UC Davis' win probability against Portland has held at 54% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
UC Davis' win probability against Portland has held at 61% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.