Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
St Francis PA
Troy
|
61
D-
|
Overall |
86
B
|
|
61
D-
|
Power |
81
B-
|
|
69
D+
6099
|
Offensive |
81
B-
6099
|
|
St Francis PA
6099
Troy
6099
|
||
|
61
D-
6099
|
Defensive |
80
B-
6099
|
|
St Francis PA
6099
Troy
6099
|
||
|
66
D
|
SoS (Current) |
81
B-
|
|
66
D
|
SoS (Future) |
81
B-
|
St Francis PA
Troy
| 356 | Overall | 125 |
| 352 | Power | 166 |
| 278 | Offensive | 172 |
| 360 | Defensive | 176 |
| 312 | SoS (Current) | 171 |
| 312 | SoS (Future) | 171 |
Wk 24 (Apr 7), 2025-26: Troy 95%, St Francis PA 5% at Troy.
Troy's win probability against St Francis PA has held at 89% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Troy's win probability against St Francis PA has held at 93% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
Troy's win probability against St Francis PA has held at 95% over the last 6 weeks — this matchup has settled.
| Week | At St Francis PA | Neutral | At Troy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | 90% | 94% | 96% |
| Wk 1 | 97% | 98% | 98% |
| Wk 2 | 94% | 96% | 97% |
| Wk 3 | 96% | 97% | 98% |
| Wk 4 | 93% | 95% | 97% |
| Wk 5 | 92% | 95% | 97% |
| Wk 6 | 91% | 94% | 96% |
| Wk 7 | 94% | 96% | 98% |
| Wk 8 | 95% | 97% | 98% |
| Wk 9 | 95% | 97% | 98% |
| Wk 10 | 96% | 98% | 98% |
| Wk 11 | 93% | 95% | 97% |
| Wk 12 | 95% | 97% | 98% |
| Wk 13 | 92% | 95% | 97% |
| Wk 14 | 90% | 94% | 96% |
| Wk 15 | 92% | 95% | 97% |
| Wk 16 | 91% | 94% | 96% |
| Wk 17 | 88% | 92% | 95% |
| Wk 18 | 89% | 92% | 95% |
| Wk 19 | 88% | 92% | 95% |
| Wk 20 | 89% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 21 | 89% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 22 | 89% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 23 | 89% | 93% | 95% |
| Wk 24 | 89% | 93% | 95% |
St Francis PA
Troy
|
0-1 (0%) |
Head to Head |
1-0 (100%) |
|
5-24 (17.2%) |
Overall |
20-12 (62.5%) |
|
3-8 (27.3%) |
Home |
8-3 (72.7%) |
|
2-14 (12.5%) |
Away |
9-7 (56.3%) |
|
0-1 (0%) |
Versus Top 25 |
0-1 (0%) |
|
0-10 (0%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
13-10 (56.5%) |
|
5-14 (26.3%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
7-2 (77.8%) |
|
1-9 (10%) |
Last 10 Games |
6-4 (60%) |
St Francis PA
Troy
| #314 Wagner | Best Win | #40 San Diego St |
| #349 Chicago St | Worst Loss | #264 West Georgia |
| 21 pts vs #349 Chicago St | Largest MOV | 26 pts vs #186 Southern Miss |
| 41 pts vs #8 Florida | Largest MOD | 29 pts vs #15 Nebraska |
St Francis PA
Troy
| 70 | Points per Game | 77.3 |
| 83.1 | Points Against | 74.5 |
| 73.3 | Home PPG | 77.5 |
| 79 | Home PA | 68.7 |
| 69 | Away PPG | 79.8 |
| 85.8 | Away PA | 80.2 |
| 439-465 | Opponent Record | 515-498 |
| 237.7 | Avg Opponent Rank | 186.1 |
| L 12 | Longest Streak | W 5 |
| L 2 | Current Streak | L 1 |
St Francis PA
Troy
| Feb 28 | at Central Conn (16-12) | L64-69 | Mar 19 | #15 Nebraska (28-7) | L47-76 |
| Feb 26 | at Stonehill (10-21) | L77-103 | Mar 9 | Ga Southern (19-16) | W77-61 |
| Feb 24 | at New Haven (11-17) | W73-67 | Mar 8 | Southern Miss (17-16) | W78-70 |
| Feb 21 | vs Wagner (11-17) | L56-65 | Feb 27 | vs ULM (2-28) | W80-65 |
| Feb 19 | vs LIU Brooklyn (24-11) | L89-91 | Feb 24 | vs Louisiana (11-22) | W78-59 |
| Feb 14 | vs Mercyhurst (15-17) | L79-94 | Feb 21 | at South Alabama (19-12) | L54-65 |
| Feb 12 | at F Dickinson (8-21) | L59-66 | Feb 18 | at ULM (2-28) | W77-76 |
| Feb 9 | at Chicago St (6-25) | L75-80 | Feb 14 | at Southern Miss (17-16) | L65-69 |
| Feb 7 | at Le Moyne (14-17) | L84-86 | Feb 11 | at Texas St (17-13) | L62-74 |
| Feb 5 | at Mercyhurst (15-17) | L89-98 | Feb 7 | vs Akron (27-6) | W79-69 |
vs
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