Fine-tune team strengths to model injuries, form, or what-if scenarios
Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: San Francisco 66%, Portland St 34% at San Francisco.
San Francisco's win probability against Portland St has held at 53% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
San Francisco's win probability against Portland St is trending down — from 62% to 59% over the last 6 updates.
San Francisco's win probability against Portland St has held at 66% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.