UC Merced at Fresno Pacific Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Fresno Pacific by 4.52
TOTAL POINTS
140
UPDATED
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
See this week's CBB D2 predictions
PRESEASON RATINGS
UC Merced
Fresno Pacific 
|
74
C
|
Overall |
78
C+
|
|
72
C-
|
Power |
75
C
|
|
66
D
|
Offensive |
69
D+
|
|
84
B
|
Defensive |
86
B
|
|
81
B-
|
SoS (Current) |
78
C+
|
|
81
B-
|
SoS (Full Season) |
78
C+
|
PRESEASON RANKINGS
UC Merced
Fresno Pacific
| 193 #648 overall |
Overall | 159 #568 overall |
| 203 #574 overall |
Power | 180 #548 overall |
| 247 #658 overall |
Offensive | 228 #629 overall |
| 115 #483 overall |
Defensive | 98 #460 overall |
| 133 #498 overall |
SoS (Current) | 162 #527 overall |
| 133 #498 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 162 #527 overall |
Fresno Pacific#15963%UC Merced#19337%Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Fresno Pacific 63%, UC Merced 37% at Fresno Pacific.
Fresno Pacific's win probability against UC Merced has held at 46% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Fresno Pacific's win probability against UC Merced has held at 55% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Fresno Pacific's win probability against UC Merced has held at 63% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Fresno Pacific favored
UC Merced favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | Season | At UC Merced | Neutral | At Fresno Pacific |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 17 | 2025-26 | 49% | 57% | 66% |
| Wk 18 | 2025-26 | 47% | 56% | 65% |
| Wk 19 | 2025-26 | 47% | 56% | 65% |
| Wk 20 | 2025-26 | 47% | 56% | 64% |
| Wk 21 | 2025-26 | 46% | 55% | 64% |
| Wk 22 | 2025-26 | 47% | 56% | 64% |
| Wk 23 | 2025-26 | 47% | 56% | 64% |
| Wk 24 | 2025-26 | 47% | 56% | 64% |
| Pre | 2026-27 | 46% | 55% | 63% |
2025-2026 RECORDS
UC Merced
Fresno Pacific
|
1-0 (100%) |
Head to Head |
0-1 (0%) |
|
9-17 (34.6%) |
Overall |
14-16 (46.7%) |
|
6-6 (50%) |
Home |
7-5 (58.3%) |
|
3-11 (21.4%) |
Away |
6-8 (42.9%) |
|
0-2 (0%) |
Versus D2 Top 25 |
0-3 (0%) |
|
2-11 (15.4%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
7-10 (41.2%) |
|
7-6 (53.8%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
7-6 (53.8%) |
|
4-6 (40%) |
Last 10 Games |
5-5 (50%) |
2025-2026 SUPERLATIVES
UC Merced
Fresno Pacific
| #444 Humboldt St | Best Win | #398 Hawaii Pacific |
| #869 S Francisco St | Worst Loss | #717 Cal St-LA |
| 20 pts vs #444 Humboldt St | Largest MOV | 16 pts vs #869 S Francisco St |
| 54 pts vs #31 St Mary's CA | Largest MOD | 37 pts vs #190 Fresno St |
OTHER 2025-2026 STATISTICS
UC Merced
Fresno Pacific
| 68.3 | Points per Game | 69.4 |
| 73.4 | Points Against | 73.3 |
| 72.3 | Home PPG | 74.7 |
| 70.2 | Home PA | 74.9 |
| 64.9 | Away PPG | 66.5 |
| 76.1 | Away PA | 72.8 |
| 402-360 | Opponent Record | 422-450 |
| 506.2 | Avg Opponent Rank | 545 |
| L 7 | Longest Streak | L 5 |
| L 3 | Current Streak | L 1 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
UC Merced
Fresno Pacific
| Feb 28 | at CSU East Bay (33-1) | L51-58 | Mar 5 | Concordia CA (16-14) | L60-70 |
| Feb 26 | at S Francisco St (4-26) | L69-74 | Feb 28 | at Dominican CA (15-13) | W71-69 |
| Feb 21 | vs CS Dom. Hills (22-9) | L75-78 | Feb 26 | vs Vanguard (15-13) | L58-72 |
| Feb 19 | vs Cal St-LA (9-19) | W86-69 | Feb 21 | vs Menlo (5-24) | W79-64 |
| Feb 14 | at CS Poly Pomona (17-12) | L53-72 | Feb 17 | at Hawaii Hilo (5-24) | W63-55 |
| Feb 12 | at CS San Bern. (14-15) | L65-81 | Feb 14 | at Hawaii Pacific (19-13) | W64-57 |
| Feb 7 | vs CS Chico (7-18) | W86-76 | Feb 12 | at Chaminade (13-15) | W83-81 |
| Feb 5 | vs Humboldt St (17-16) | W83-63 | Feb 7 | vs Dominican CA (15-13) | L79-85 |
| Jan 31 | at CS San Marcos (13-14) | W80-66 | Feb 5 | at Wm Jessup (13-14) | L73-81 |
| Jan 29 | at CS Monterey Bay (17-12) | L83-89 | Jan 31 | at Point Loma (26-6) | L54-69 |