UC Merced at Cal St-LA Game Prediction
PREDICTED
FINAL SCORE
POINT SPREAD
Cal St-LA by 1.22
TOTAL POINTS
143
UPDATED
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
See this week's CBB D2 predictions
PRESEASON RATINGS
Cal St-LA
UC Merced 
|
71
C-
|
Overall |
74
C
|
|
69
D+
|
Power |
72
C-
|
|
68
D+
|
Offensive |
66
D
|
|
77
C+
|
Defensive |
84
B
|
|
78
C+
|
SoS (Current) |
81
B-
|
|
78
C+
|
SoS (Full Season) |
81
B-
|
PRESEASON RANKINGS
Cal St-LA
UC Merced
| 209 #691 overall |
Overall | 193 #648 overall |
| 227 #601 overall |
Power | 203 #574 overall |
| 237 #640 overall |
Offensive | 247 #658 overall |
| 167 #552 overall |
Defensive | 115 #483 overall |
| 160 #525 overall |
SoS (Current) | 133 #498 overall |
| 160 #520 overall |
SoS (Full Season) | 133 #498 overall |
Cal St-LA#20953%UC Merced#19347%Pre (Oct 27), 2026-27: Cal St-LA 53%, UC Merced 47% at Cal St-LA.
Cal St-LA's win probability against UC Merced has held at 37% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Cal St-LA's win probability against UC Merced has held at 45% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Cal St-LA's win probability against UC Merced has held at 53% over the last 6 updates — this matchup has settled.
Cal St-LA favored
UC Merced favored
Even, 50%
Drag across the chart
Week-by-week table
| Week | Season | At UC Merced | Neutral | At Cal St-LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 17 | 2025-26 | 42% | 50% | 58% |
| Wk 18 | 2025-26 | 36% | 44% | 52% |
| Wk 19 | 2025-26 | 37% | 44% | 53% |
| Wk 20 | 2025-26 | 37% | 44% | 53% |
| Wk 21 | 2025-26 | 37% | 45% | 53% |
| Wk 22 | 2025-26 | 37% | 45% | 53% |
| Wk 23 | 2025-26 | 36% | 44% | 52% |
| Wk 24 | 2025-26 | 36% | 44% | 52% |
| Pre | 2026-27 | 37% | 45% | 53% |
2025-2026 RECORDS
Cal St-LA
UC Merced
|
1-1 (50%) |
Head to Head |
1-1 (50%) |
|
9-19 (32.1%) |
Overall |
9-17 (34.6%) |
|
6-7 (46.2%) |
Home |
6-6 (50%) |
|
3-11 (21.4%) |
Away |
3-11 (21.4%) |
|
0-2 (0%) |
Versus D2 Top 25 |
0-2 (0%) |
|
1-12 (7.7%) |
Versus > .500 Teams |
2-11 (15.4%) |
|
8-7 (53.3%) |
Versus < .500 Teams |
7-6 (53.8%) |
|
3-7 (30%) |
Last 10 Games |
4-6 (40%) |
2025-2026 SUPERLATIVES
Cal St-LA
UC Merced
| #305 CS Dom. Hills | Best Win | #444 Humboldt St |
| #869 S Francisco St | Worst Loss | #869 S Francisco St |
| 44 pts vs #869 S Francisco St | Largest MOV | 20 pts vs #444 Humboldt St |
| 32 pts vs #434 CS Poly Pomona | Largest MOD | 54 pts vs #31 St Mary's CA |
OTHER 2025-2026 STATISTICS
Cal St-LA
UC Merced
| 69.6 | Points per Game | 68.3 |
| 74.8 | Points Against | 73.4 |
| 71.1 | Home PPG | 72.3 |
| 73.1 | Home PA | 70.2 |
| 68.2 | Away PPG | 64.9 |
| 76.4 | Away PA | 76.1 |
| 404-402 | Opponent Record | 402-360 |
| 539.4 | Avg Opponent Rank | 506.2 |
| L 5 | Longest Streak | L 7 |
| L 1 | Current Streak | L 3 |
RECENT OPPONENTS
Cal St-LA
UC Merced
| Feb 28 | vs CS Poly Pomona (17-12) | L54-86 | Feb 28 | at CSU East Bay (33-1) | L51-58 |
| Feb 26 | vs CS San Bern. (14-15) | W69-68 | Feb 26 | at S Francisco St (4-26) | L69-74 |
| Feb 21 | at CS Stanislaus (12-15) | W66-64 | Feb 21 | vs CS Dom. Hills (22-9) | L75-78 |
| Feb 19 | at UC Merced (9-17) | L69-86 | Feb 19 | vs Cal St-LA (9-19) | W86-69 |
| Feb 14 | vs CS San Marcos (13-14) | L66-71 | Feb 14 | at CS Poly Pomona (17-12) | L53-72 |
| Feb 12 | vs CS Monterey Bay (17-12) | L73-82 | Feb 12 | at CS San Bern. (14-15) | L65-81 |
| Feb 7 | at S Francisco St (4-26) | L56-84 | Feb 7 | vs CS Chico (7-18) | W86-76 |
| Feb 5 | at CSU East Bay (33-1) | L79-102 | Feb 5 | vs Humboldt St (17-16) | W83-63 |
| Jan 31 | vs CS Chico (7-18) | W83-80 | Jan 31 | at CS San Marcos (13-14) | W80-66 |
| Jan 29 | vs Humboldt St (17-16) | L66-77 | Jan 29 | at CS Monterey Bay (17-12) | L83-89 |