UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh Predictions and Analytical Preview

By: Steve Pugh, Founder, Versus Sports Simulator
February 26, 2026

UFC returns to Arena CDMX in Mexico City this Saturday, February 28, 2026, for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, a card blending established names in deeper divisions with developing contenders. The event will stream live on Paramount+, with prelims kicking off in the early evening and the main card slated for primetime.

Below is an analytical breakdown of key matchups, using Versus Sports Simulator’s proprietary predictions combined with fighter profiles, styles, and recent form.

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UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh Main Event Analysis – Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Versus Prediction: Moreno 77% — Kavanagh 23%
DraftKings Odds: Moreno 64% — Kavanagh 36%

This main event came together on somewhat short notice when Moreno’s original opponent withdrew due to injury. Brandon Moreno enters this bout with a record of 23‑9‑2 and a long history at the top of the flyweight division, including UFC championship gold. His output is well‑rounded — averaging solid striking volume and solid takedown defense — and he has fought the toughest echelon of 125‑pound competitors in recent years.

Lone’er Kavanagh steps in as a heavy underdog despite a strong 9‑1 professional slate and UFC experience that includes decision wins early in his tenure. He’s shown finishing power and is a younger, aggressive striker but lacks the depth of elite opponents Moreno has faced.

Analysis: Moreno’s experience and technical diversity are key here. His pacing and ability to mix grappling and striking project well against Kavanagh, who will likely need a high‑impact sequence to derail this fight. Versus projects a decisive lean toward Moreno — a reflection of the champ’s proven elite ceiling and the difficulty of leapfrogging a seasoned division staple on short notice.

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Bantamweight Bout Preview – Marlon Vera vs David Martinez Predictions

Versus Prediction: Vera 54% — Martinez 46%
DraftKings Odds: Vera 29% — Martinez 71%

“Chito” Vera is one of the more durable veterans in the 135‑pound ranks and frequently tests fighters across styles with heavy volume and scrappy inside work. Martinez, an undefeated rising contender on paper, brings talent and momentum but lacks the same depth of Championship-level competition.

Analysis: This matchup could be one of the tighter fights on the main card. Vera’s pressure and experience give him a marginal edge in Versus’s simulation, while external lines from DraftKings show market respect for Martinez’s trajectory. Expect a competitive three‑round battle where veteran savvy vs. emerging star energy collide.

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Lightweight Bout Breakdown – Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green

Versus Prediction: Zellhuber 83% — Green 17%
DraftKings Odds: Zellhuber 80% — Green 20%

Zellhuber has been one of the more consistent performers in the lightweight division’s middle tier, often controlling bouts with balanced striking and grappling. Green, typically a higher‑activity pressure fighter with a long journeyman record, has shown resilience but mixed results against ranked competition.

Analysis: The Versus forecast strongly favors Zellhuber. The style differential — measured offense and calculated pacing vs. Green’s chaos — suggests a technical edge for Zellhuber over three rounds.

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Flyweight Insights – Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes

Versus Prediction: Chairez 62% — Bunes 38%
DraftKings Odds: Chairez 73% — Bunes 27%

Chairez is a seasoned flyweight with well-rounded skills and solid fight IQ, while Bunes brings veteran flair but less striking precision and fewer clear advantages in grappling statistics.

Analysis: Chairez’s ability to control tempo and mix in takedowns gives him the simulation edge. The stylistic contrast could favor Chairez in both early striking exchanges and later positional grappling.

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Women’s Bantamweight Analysis – Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson

Versus Prediction: Perez 61% — Chiasson 39%
DraftKings Odds: Perez 62% — Chiasson 38%

Both women are ranked and striving toward the top 10. Perez’s consistent finishing record and recent momentum provide her a slight edge, while Chiasson’s length and experience give her tools to disrupt pace.

Analysis: This bout projects as a tactical contest where range and activity rate could decide the winner. Perez’s Versus advantage suggests she might edge out Chiasson in accumulative striking and control time.

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Prelim Spotlight – Bantamweight Bout Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho

Versus Prediction: Quinonez 59% — Moutinho 41%
DraftKings Odds: Quinonez 84% — Moutinho 16%

Quinonez’s straight‑ahead approach vs. Moutinho’s less consistent output makes this a stylistically interesting preliminary fight. Given the variance, Versus still leans Quinonez modestly here.

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What to Expect at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh – Key Takeaways and Betting Insights

This card offers a mixture of veteran presence, rising talent, and stylistic intrigue across the board. The Versus Sports Simulator’s forecasts align with a few key narratives:

• Main event: A strong lean toward Moreno’s experience over a promising but less proven opponent.

• Emerging talent: Martinez and Chairez are positioned to upset expectations, even if public odds vary.

• Balance of styles: The card features strikers vs grapplers, veterans vs rising stars — matchups where precision and fight control could swing outcomes.

With a base of Versus’s analytical outputs and verified fight statistics and context, this event looks to be competitive from the prelims through the main event — ideal for both hardcore fans and bettors looking for value across multiple weights.

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How to Use Versus Sports Simulator for UFC Betting

If you're new to Versus Sports Simulator and wondering how to apply these projections to real betting decisions, we’ve put together a detailed guide explaining exactly how the system works.

Our breakdown covers how to interpret win probabilities, compare simulation outputs to sportsbook odds, identify value opportunities, and manage risk across a full fight card. Whether you’re betting moneylines, parlays, or simply tracking edges, understanding the relationship between projection percentages and implied odds is critical.

If you're serious about improving your UFC betting process, that article walks through the exact framework our premium subscribers use each week.

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