NFL Week 6: Four Games to Watch
Seattle (3-2) at Jacksonville (4-1)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. TV: FOX FanDuel line: Jacksonville -1.5 VSS line: Jacksonville -0.09
Watching Jacksonville’s game-winning drive against Kansas City last week felt a lot like watching a person “fail up” in the workplace. It was ugly. It had no business working out. But, regardless, the Jaguars walked away with an early-season signature victory. Despite some early struggles, the back-to-back wins over San Francisco at Kansas City are a signal that it’s time to start taking Jacksonville seriously as a contender. We’ve done that here at Versus Sports Simulator, where the Jags check in at fourth in this week’s power rankings. This week they’ll get a visit from 10th-ranked Seattle.
Despite being sound statistically, Seattle might be one of the most slept on teams in the NFL early in the season. The Seahawks are behind the 49ers in the NFC West, who find a way to keep winning despite Brock Purdy and virtually the entire wide receiver corps missing time. They don’t quite jump off the page like the Rams, which have the NFL’s leading passer and receiver in Sam Bradford and Puca Nacua. But Sam Darnold quietly holds the third highest completion percentage (73.1 percent) heading into this week, leads the league in yards gained per pass attempt and is second in yards per completion. Top target Jaxon Smith-Njigba is right behind Nacua in yards per game (106.8) and leads the NFL in yards per catch at 12.4. Despite its opportunistic secondary (10 interceptions), Jacksonville is near the bottom of the league in passing defense, as is Seattle. The Seahawks do however have one of the better run defenses, meaning Trevor Lawrence might have to take to the air to set up Travis Etienne (88.6 ypg) rather than the other way around.
San Francisco (4-1) at Tampa Bay (4-1)
Kickoff: 4:25p.m. TV: CBS FanDuel line: Tampa Bay -3 VSS line: Tampa Bay -1.17
It’s a testament to both franchises that we’re looking at a matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL and neither are likely to be anywhere close to fully healthy at gametime. Looking at the injury reports for both teams reminds me of reading the novel The Gift of the Magi. Tampa Bay corners Zyon McCollum and Benjamin Morrison were both listed as non-participants in Wednesday practices while corner Jamel Dean and safety Christian Izean were both listed as limited. Yet, San Francisco wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins were all non-participants as well. The 49ers defensive line had three members listed as non-participants on Wednesday and another three listed as limited. Yet, the Buccaneers are still without the services of leading rusher Bucky Irving. There are no gifts to be taken advantage of in either direction.
Despite the missing players, you can expect plenty of fireworks from this matchup. The Mac Jones redemption tour has so far been a success and he’ll get another start this week even though he’s dealing with a couple of injuries as well. He’s still got Christian McCaffrey to give the ball to in multiple ways, and the 49ers will undoubtedly try to find soft spots for him to attack against the depleted secondary. For Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield seems to have found his next great target in rookie Emeka Egbuka. Even with Chris Godwin still getting up to speed and Mike Evans still sidelined, Egbuka has found himself getting open and punishing defenses. He’s fourth in both receiving yards (445) and yards per reception (17.8) while ranking second in receiving touchdowns with five.
Detroit (4-1) at Kansas City (2-3)
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. TV: NBC FanDuel line: Kansas City -1.5 VSS line: Detroit -0.02
Nope, I still don’t think it’s time to sound the alarm on Kansas City. Did the Chiefs defense allow one of the most ridiculous game-winning drives possible last week? Yes. Have the Chiefs lost every game against a good opponent on their schedule? Also yes. But all three Kansas City losses have been close games that they’ve historically been able to pull out. You can call past results luck, or you can call this year’s results a market correction. Either way, Andy Reid’s team is too good to keep losing. While a game against Detroit, which comes in riding a four-game winning streak, isn’t exactly an ideal way to turn things around, there’s reason for optimism.
Detroit’s offense has certainly been humming during its winning streak. Jared Goff leads the NFL in completion percentage (75.2 percent) and passing touchdowns (12) while top targets Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the league with six receiving touchdowns and Jameson Williams’ 20.3 yards per reception trails only Tyquan Thornton (20.9), who will be on the opposing sideline. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the top 15 of total scrimmage yards with 437. But here’s the rub – the majority of these stats are coming against the underwhelming members of the AFC North (and the NFL as a whole), Cincinnati, Cleveland and Baltimore. The Bengals and the Ravens both have bottom three defenses. The only team that Detroit has faced that currently has a winning record is Green Bay in week one, which ended with a Packers victory and the Lions netting less than 300 yards of total offense.
Both Vegas and the simulator like this as a close game, and it’ll be a telling point for both teams. Both need to show that they’re capable of beating the better opponents in the league, but for different reasons. Is Kansas City still a Super Bowl contender? Is Detroit more than a paper tiger? This game will show us a lot in both directions.
Chicago (2-2) at Washington (3-2)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m., Mon TV: ABC FanDuel line: Washington -4.5 VSS line: Washington -11.62
Last season’s inaugural battle between the 2024 first and second overall picks couldn’t have resulted in more different outcomes for the participants. Jayden Daniels 52-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to Noah Brown as time expired, just mere seconds after Chicago’s Tyrique Stevenson taunted the crowd proved to be an iconic moment during a season in which the rookie quarterback led his team to the NFC Championship game. For Caleb Williams and the Bears, the game was the beginning of a 10-game losing streak in which the quarterback – and the entire team’s – performance spiraled out of control.
Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson some stability has been brought to Chicago and Caleb Williams’ play has been far more consistent. Williams, a Washington, D.C. native, will be looking for his second return home to be more successful than his first attempt. In that regard, there’s reason to believe he can, at the very least, have statistical success. Washington’s defense hasn’t shown the type of improvement fans and the staff would have liked to have seen from last year. When the Commanders are able to get to the quarterback, things have gone well. Washington sacked Justin Herbert five times in last week’s win over the L.A. Chargers. But when the quarterback has time, the secondary isn’t good enough to compensate – see the 34-27 loss to Atlanta in which Michael Pennix was taken down only once. The Bears have allied only seven sacks in four games.
With Daniels fully recovered from injury and rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt emerging as a legitimate lead back, the Commanders will likely look to exploit Chicago’s 24th-ranked rush defense, which is allowing 164 yards per game.
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Jonathan Howard, Sports Analyst
Jonathan Howard is a veteran sports writer from Richmond, Virginia. His work has been featured in newspapers such as the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post and The Virginian-Pilot. He enjoys cheering for his alma mater - VCU - and playing golf when time allows.