CFB Week 12: Simming the Playoff Bracket

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
November 14, 2025

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its second set of rankings and bracket projection on Tuesday night, giving teams an updated look at where they stand, and fans a chance to start salivating at potential matchups. It also gives us a chance to use the simulator and see how things would go if these matchups were played today. Without further adieu, let’s find out.

First Round Matchups

No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia, winner plays No. 4 Alabama

• The result: Georgia 34, South Florida 25

• Commentary: South Florida is this week’s expected representative from the group of five and unfortunately for the Bulls, the nation’s number five scoring offense is predicted to fall short against Georgia. The Bulldogs have a 72 percent win rate in the simulated matchup and are shown to hold USF three scores under its 42 points per game average. South Florida averages 226 yards per game on the ground, good for 10th in the country. However, Georgia ranks 11th against the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game, against a tougher schedule.

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon, winner plays No. 1 Ohio State

• The result: Oregon 30, Notre Dame 25

• Commentary: Since dropping its first two games of the season to Miami and Texas A&M, Notre Dame has been untouched – and adept at keeping teams out of the end zone. The Fighting Irish have allowed opponents a single touchdown in five of its last six games. Unfortunately for Notre Dame, Oregon has been even better in that regard, allowing just 13.8 points per game while also sporting a top 15 offense by points per game and yards gained. The Ducks are predicted to win at a 62 percent rate in the simulation.

No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Texas Tech, winner plays No. 3 Texas A&M

• The result: Texas Tech 28, Miami 20

• Commentary: Miami finds its way back into the hunt after Virginia’s shocking, yet likely overdue, loss to Wake Forest last week. While the Hurricanes’ defense (15 ppg, 285 ypg) has been Miami’s calling card this year, the simulator likes the Texas Tech duo of quarterback Behren Morton and running back Cameron Dickey 68 percent of the time.

No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Ole Miss winner plays No. 2 Indiana

• The result: Ole Miss 30, Texas 26

• Commentary: Predicted as the most closely contested first-round game, Ole Miss gets the nod from the simulator at a 61 percent rate. While the Rebels have lived life dangerously with five wins coming by a touchdown or less, the Trinidad Chambliss-led offense is expected to be enough to overcome the streaking Longhorns, who have won four straight SEC contests.

Quarterfinals

No. 5 Georgia vs No. 4 Alabama

• The result: Alabama 25, Georgia 22

• Commentary: A rematch from week five AND a potential SEC Championship matchup. Alabama took home the three-point road win during the regular season, and the simulator likes the Crimson Tide to repeat at a 58 percent rate in the playoffs. Historically, Alabama has never defeated Georgia twice in the same season.

No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

• The result: Ohio State 25, Oregon 23

• Commentary: While Ohio State currently leads the polls, the simulator currently has the Buckeyes with only the third best odds to advance to the semifinals. Nonetheless, the top seed is a winner 57 percent of the time against fellow Big Ten foe Oregon. The adage goes that defense travels … and Ohio State has the best defense by points (7.2) and yards (211.6) in the country.

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

• The result: Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 30

• Commentary: The first predicted upset of the playoffs, the simulator likes Texas Tech to knock off its in-state and former conference rival 52 percent of the time. Of all the games simulated for this exercise, this game has the second-highest point total. In a shootout, it’s hard to bet against the Red Raiders.

No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

• The result: Indiana 40, Ole Miss 25

• Commentary: The simulator is more confident in this result than any other, giving the Hoosiers the edge in 83 percent of potential outcomes. As has been mentioned multiple times, Ole Miss has lived on the edge a lot this season and has had to heavily rely on its offense to come through for wins. Indiana is allowing just 84 yards per game on the ground. With only a passing game to rely on, the Rebels are nowhere near as dangerous.

Semifinals

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

• The result: Ohio State 25, Alabama 19

• Commentary: Alabama won the last CFP matchup between these teams, 52-24, in the 2021 National Championship game. The Buckeyes are favored this time, winning simulations at a 65 percent rate.

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Indiana

• The result: Indiana 33, Texas Tech 24

• Commentary: The simulator is once again extremely confident in the Hoosiers, with Indiana claiming victories in 72 percent of attempts. It should be noted that while Indiana would have the best defense that Texas Tech has faced all season, the Red Raiders have faced relatively good defenses in Utah, Arizona State and BYU. Indiana has NOT seen an offense as good as Texas Tech’s this season.

Final

No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

• The result: Indiana 26, Ohio State 23

• Commentary: A likely rematch of the Big Ten title game, the simulator likes the Hoosiers to claim Indiana’s first National Championship at a 59 percent rate. A win would complete an epic program turnaround. Indiana has finished with a losing record in 15 of the last 20 seasons (including the unfinished 2025 season).

Jonathan Howard, Sports Analyst

Jonathan Howard is a veteran sports writer from Richmond, Virginia. His work has been featured in newspapers such as the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post and The Virginian-Pilot. He enjoys cheering for his alma mater - VCU - and playing golf when time allows.