College Football Postseason: Simming the Playoff Bracket

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
December 18, 2025

A month ago after the College Football Playoff selection committee released its second set of rankings and playoff projections, we ran a simulation to see which teams would make it out of the bracket. Our initial run through crowned Indiana the champion after the Hoosiers defeated Ole Miss and Texas Tech by multiple scores and squeaked by conference foe Ohio State (then the top seed) in the title game. While the bracket has certainly changed since then, Indiana and Ohio State remain as the top two seeds, just in opposite seats. Does the simulator still have the Big Ten rivals on a collision course for championship glory? Let’s take a look.

First Round

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon, winner plays No. 4 Texas Tech

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (EST), Saturday TV: TNT

• The result: Oregon 39, James Madison 14

• Commentary: Those of us who live in the Commonwealth that were excited to see the Dukes get a seat at the big boy table won’t be happy with the VSS projection, which has the homestanding Ducks winning big and at a 93 percent rate. Statistically, JMU stacks up well with Oregon, as both are top 10 in scoring offense and defense and both in the top five in offensive yards allowed per game. However, questions still persist about JMU’s ability to compete against a power five opponent. The Dukes lost at Louisville – which seemed poised to make a playoff push of its own before inexplicably losing three of its last four – 28-14 early in the season. Both teams have done exceptionally well against this pass this season, with both teams holding opposing quarterbacks below 52 percent passing. It’s there that the rubber ought to meet the road. Oregon’s Dante Moore is one of the nation’s most accurate passers, completing 72.5 percent of his attempts. JMU’s Alonza Barrett, a dual threat, is completing just under 60 percent, which puts him in similar company as Iowa’s Mark Gronkowski, Northwestern’s Preston Stone and Oklahoma State’s Zane Flores. All three were turned over multiple times by the Oregon defense.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma, winner plays No. 1 Indiana

Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. (EST), Friday TV: ABC

• The result: Oklahoma 21, Alabama 19

• Commentary: Oklahoma could have folded after taking two conference losses in October. Instead, the Sooners rallied to win their final four games, including a 23-21 decision at Alabama. Alabama dominated that game statistically, outgaining Oklahoma 406-212, but committed three costly turnovers. The Crimson Tide felt disrespected by the Sooners after the game and could be ready to take revenge. Individually, any of these things could happen again. Alabama, led by the passing of quarterback Ty Simpson, could put up a lot of passing yards on Oklahoma’s defense. Oklahoma could have a rough offensive showing. The Sooners could also turn the Crimson Tide over multiple times. However, I don’t see the convergence of those three happening and the game going the same way. The simulator likes Oklahoma to win once again in a nail biter, at a 54 percent rate. The saying goes “defense travels,” and I think we see that here with Oklahoma selling out to stop the pass and daring Alabama to run, which it has done unsuccessfully all season.

No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss, winner plays No. 3 Georgia

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. (EST), Saturday TV: TNT

• The result: Ole Miss 38, Tulane 20

• Commentary: The simulator loves Ole Miss in this matchup at a definitive 87 percent win rate. Considering the Rebels easily defeated Tulane earlier this season, 45-10, it’s easy to see why they’d be favored once again. Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzler completed just 29 percent of his passes (5 of 17) for 56 yards before he was benched as the Ole Miss defense locked up Tulane from the very start. It was easily Tulane’s worst effort of the season, and despite the team’s hot streak (five straight wins), the talent gap between the two teams is still the same. Tulane seems to feel more confident this time around and it could have a couple of mental edges. For starters, the fact that Ole Miss has already won the matchup this season could lead to some early sleep walking. We also can’t overlook the distraction that was former head coach Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU. Will Ole Miss players be in the proper mindset come kickoff? Of course, Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is also on his way to Florida – but he’s at least with his team during the playoff run for one last hurrah. It’s a situation where Tulane could jump out early and Ole Miss let down, leading to a close game…or an upset.

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M, winner plays No. 2 Ohio State

Kickoff: Noon (EST), Saturday TV: ABC

• The result: Miami 27, Texas A&M 25

• Commentary: In a very short period of time, Texas A&M went from SEC front runner to a non-participant in the SEC Championship game, to playing in the first round of the College Football Playoff, to … being an underdog? That’s what the simulator is telling us, as it predicts a close win by Miami at a 55 percent rate. The Hurricanes were an early-season media darling before dropping games to Louisville and Southern Methodist over the course of three weeks. While the losses ultimately dropped Miami out of the ACC Championship race, the Hurricanes finished the season hot with four straight wins by an average margin of victory of four touchdowns. Texas A&M ran off 11 straight wins and was poised to be in the SEC title game with a bye in the playoff before falling to Texas to end the season. Miami’s predicted upset bid is reliant on the Hurricanes’ top 10 defense holding the Aggies 11 points below their season average. To accomplish this, they’ll need to shut down the dual-threat attack of Marcel Reed, who racked up 3,398 yards of total offense and 31 total touchdowns during the regular season. The blueprint might be how Miami handled South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown early in the season. The Hurricanes held the South Florida signal caller to 56 percent passing – 10 percentage points below his season average, and to just two net rushing yards.

Quarterfinals

No. 5 Oregon vs No. 4 Texas Tech, Orange Bowl

Kickoff: Noon (EST), Jan 1 TV: ESPN

• The result: Oregon 29, Texas Tech 27

• Commentary: After rolling over James Madison in the first round, Oregon is predicted to follow it up with an upset win in the most highly contested game in the simulation. The Ducks are winners 53 percent of the time against the Red Raiders, who haven’t played a truly competitive game since falling to Arizona State 26-22 on October 18. Texas Tech was without quarterback Behren Morton in that game and has been rolling since his return to the lineup. But as red hot as the Red Raiders have been, there will have been nearly a month between the win over BYU in the Big 12 Championship game and this quarterfinal contest. Could rust prove to be an issue for the higher seed? Do the Red Raiders even know what to do when they’re punched in the mouth with a fully healthy lineup?

No. 8 Oklahoma vs No. 1 Indiana, Rose Bowl

Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. (EST), Jan 1 TV: ESPN

• The result: Indiana 29, Oklahoma 13

• Commentary: Oklahoma might have gotten over on Alabama with its defense, but the simulator gives the Sooners a slim chance of repeating the act against top-seeded Indiana. As opportunistic as the Oklahoma defense might be, it’s still behind Indiana’s, which allowed just under 11 points and 258 yards per game during its run to the Big Ten championship. And Oklahoma’s chances of playing a low-scoring grind-it-out game against the top seed? Also slim. Not with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza under center for the Hoosiers, who are predicted to win this matchup 84 percent of the time.

No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 3 Georgia, Sugar Bowl

Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. (EST), Jan 1 TV: ESPN

• The result: Georgia 28, Ole Miss 26

• Commentary: We’ve already covered why Ole Miss might not even end up in this game, but assuming the Rebels make it through, they’ve got a puncher’s chance against the SEC champion. Regardless, Georgia is predicted to win this matchup 56 percent of the time in close fashion. This would be a rematch of the back-and-forth regular season clash where Georgia outscored Ole Miss 17-0 in the fourth quarter to walk away with a 43-35 victory. Combined with a 44-41 result against Tennessee two weeks earlier, Georgia’s defense received a lot of criticism heading into the back half of the season. However, the Bulldogs have allowed no more than 21 points to an opponent since the October 18 win over the Rebels, and held Alabama to just 7 points in the SEC Championship game. Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense has continued to roll, leaving us with a question of which unit will be able to take control – and if it’s Ole Miss’ offense, will the defense be able to stave off Georgia, or will the Bulldogs pull away late once again?

No. 10 Miami vs No. 2 Ohio State, Cotton Bowl

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (EST), Dec 31 TV: ESPN

• The result: Ohio State 23, Miami 14

• Commentary: Sorry, Miami. The Hurricanes might pull an upset in the first round, but Ohio State is a different animal. Until the Buckeyes fell short in the defensive slugfest against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, they’d been essentially uncontested all season. The defense has been dominant, leading the country in points allowed, total yards per game and passing yards per game while ranking sixth against the run. Meanwhile, the nation’s most accurate and efficient quarterback in Julian Sayin has led an offense so efficient that the Buckeyes consistently win by multiple scores while ranking in the bottom portion of the country in plays per game. All of this to say that the 71 percent clip that the simulator predicts an Ohio State victory might actually be a little low.

Semifinals

No. 5 Oregon vs No. 1 Indiana, Peach Bowl

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (EST), Jan 9 TV: ESPN

• The result: Indiana 31, Oregon 26

• Commentary: Another regular season rematch. Indiana scored 10 straight points over the final 6:30 of the fourth quarter to beat Oregon on the road on October 11, 30-20. The regular-season defeat was Oregon’s first since October 14, 2023 and its first at home since November 12, 2022 (both losses were to Washington). While the simulator likes Indiana to win this matchup 62 percent of the time, it’s still predicted to be within one touchdown. That’s an area where the Hoosiers have felt very comfortable living this season. In addition to the win at Oregon in which Indiana pulled away late, Curt Cignetti’s team won one-possession road games at Iowa and Penn State, and of course outlasted Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. With two hypothetical wins headed into the matchup, Oregon could feel confident and on a roll … but we’re still talking about the top seed in the playoffs.

No. 3 Georgia vs No. 2 Ohio State, Fiesta Bowl

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (EST), Jan 8 TV: ESPN

• The result: Ohio State 24, Georgia 13

• Commentary: Georgia’s defense has been good the last several weeks. But better than Ohio State’s? The simulator doesn’t think so, and gives Ohio State a 74 percent win rate in a rematch of the 2022-2023 semifinal won by Georgia. In past seasons, winning the SEC might have given Georgia the leg up seeding wise, but Ohio State was given the nod based on statistical strength and the close loss to Indiana in the conference championship. All in all, the simulator thinks the decision will be proved correct.

National Championship

No. 2 Ohio State vs No. 1 Indiana, Miami

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (EST), Jan 19 TV: ESPN

• The result: Indiana 25, Ohio State 22

• Commentary: While it was an upset during our first simulation a few weeks ago, Indiana is still predicted to top Ohio State, this time as the top seed, at a 58 percent rate. This game is once again pure strength on strength – top level defenses against highly efficient offenses with top-level quarterbacks. It’ll be one last chance for Mendoza to show that he’s truly the best as the Heisman Trophy winner – or for Sayin to give the voters a look at what they could have voted for. For the simulator, it all ends in the Hoosiers’ first national championship and massive parade in Bloomington.