CFB Week 2: Let's Find Some Upsets and Bad Lines

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
September 5, 2025

While the opening weekend of college football is often celebrated, rarely do we get presented with so much playoff-shaping intrigue right off the bat. We had Texas losing its number one ranking in the Horseshoe to Ohio State and LSU upending Clemson in the orange version of Death Valley. We had Miami … actually winning a big game … and Florida State showing it could be back amongst the elite with a crushing win over Alabama.

Week two, however, doesn’t come with the same intrigue. This week is dedicated to prep work for grueling conference schedules with many power schools facing off against group of five and FCS competition. But, if you’re looking to find some action to make the week a little more interesting, the Versus Sports Simulator has identified a few games where sports books might be looking in the wrong direction or not giving enough credit.

No. 20 Ole Miss (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0)

Kickoff time: 3:30 p.m. (EST) TV: ABC FanDuel line: Ole Miss -8.5 VSS line: Ole Miss -15.16

Kentucky fans didn’t have a lot to celebrate last season following the Wildcats’ 4-8 campaign. However, they could hang their hat on the 20-17 victory in Oxford – the only home loss suffered by Ole Miss in a season that ended 10-3 with a Gator Bowl victory. A year later and the Rebels once again have College Football Playoff hopes and Kentucky … well … basketball season starts in November. The Rebels kicked off the 2025 season with a convincing 63-7 victory over Georgia State. Austin Simmons threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns and Kewan Lacey rushed for 108 yards and three more scores in the win. Meanwhile, Kentucky put up only 305 yards of offense and had to hold off a fourth-quarter rally in a 24-16 win over Toledo at home.

The Vegas books like Ole Miss to get its revenge in this one, given what we know about each team at this point, the 8.5-point advantage could be a little low. The simulator likes the Rebels by 15.16, which is closer to what the line would likely be if the game was played in Oxford. I like Ole Miss to win by two touchdowns plus as the simulator suggests. How would they fail? Kentucky would need to control the ball on the ground with Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan, who combined to rush for 207 yards a week ago. They’ll also need to force turnovers from Simmons, who threw two picks against Georgia State. But can they? Doubtful. Lane Kiffin will have his team ready to send a message on Saturday.

Boston College (1-0) at Michigan State (1-0)

Kickoff time: 7:30 p.m. (EST) TV: NBC FanDuel line: MSU -4.5 VSS line: BC -3.63

The 2021 season which saw Michigan State go 11-2, concluding with a 31-21 victory over Pitt in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, feels like it happened three decades ago. In the three years since, the Spartans have gone 14-22 and have crashed down the Big Ten pecking order. Saturday’s clash with Boston College represents just its third non-conference home game against a power conference opponent since 2019. The Eagles defeated the Spartans 23-19 in come-from-behind fashion in Chestnut Hill a year ago.

There isn’t a lot to glean from either team’s week one results. Boston College easily handled FCS opponent Fordham, 66-10. Michigan State scored 21 first-half points against Western Michigan, then snoozed through the second half in a 23-6 victory. Regardless, the Vegas books like the Spartans, likely based Boston College’s struggles on the road over the past several seasons. The Eagles opened last season with a road win over Florida State, but proceeded to drop its remaining four road contests. Going back to 2015, Boston College has only finished .500 or better on the road three times. From that point of view, it makes sense to give the Spartans the edge, but the computers like the visitors by a similar amount that the books like the Spartans.

UCLA (0-1) at UNLV (2-0)

Kickoff time: 8:00 p.m. (EST) TV: CBS Sports FanDuel line: UCLA -2.5 VSS line: UNLV -1.58

The Runnin’ Rebels are coming off their first back-to-back winning seasons since Randall Cunningham was the school’s starting quarterback and ended last season ranked for the first time in school history. This year new head coach Dan Mullen is building off that momentum and has his team off to a 2-0 start after wins over Idaho State and Sam Houston. While neither opponent is going to strike fear into anyone’s heart, the offense seems to have already found an early groove behind Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea at quarterback at running back Jai’Den Thomas. UNLV racked up nearly 950 yards between the first two games with Colandrea and Thomas combining for eight touchdowns.

On the other hand, UCLA’s season is off to a rough start after the Bruins were throttled at home by Utah, 43-10. High expectations fall on UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava, whose transfer from Tennessee was highly publicized for all the wrong reasons. In week one the sophomore threw for just 136 yards and rushed for another 47 as the offense failed to gain traction. While the Bruins are certainly a better opponent than UNLV’s first two, we’re still looking at two teams at opposite ends of the momentum spectrum – and the Runnin’ Rebels still have something to prove. UNLV’s players certainly seem to feel confident.

San Diego State (1-0) at Washington State (1-0)

Kickoff time: 10:15 p.m. (EST) TV: The CW FanDuel line: WSU -1.5 VSS line: WSU -12.27

Last week’s opener was a sign of encouragement on defense for Washington State, which dropped its final four games of 2024 and gave up 38 or more points in three of the losses. Against Idaho, the Cougars allowed just 10 points and 221 yards of total offense while also forcing two Vandals turnovers in the win. Unfortunately for Wazzu, its own offensive numbers were equally as bad. Quarterback Jaxon Potter was a respectable 23 of 30 for 208 yards and a touchdown, but the Cougars rushed for only three yards in a 13-10 win. A couple states away, San Diego State cruised to a 42-0 victory over FCS Stony Brook.

If Washington State’s defense can continue its effort from week one, there’s no reason to believe the Cougars won’t beat the visiting Aztecs, who haven’t won on the road against a (traditional) power conference team since 2021 when they throttled Arizona 38-14 and finished the season 12-2. The thin Vegas line shows a lack of confidence for a high-scoring game, but the simulator sees it differently as a two-score spread. How could we get there? Let’s consider that this was Washington State’s first game under a new head coach, implementing a new system, with a new quarterback that won the starting job at the end of camp. Perhaps week one was a hiccup and the Cougars will throw things into a higher gear against a better opponent? We’ll find out Saturday.