MMA Betting Strategies

By: Elijah Senolos, Guest Contributor
September 12, 2023

Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) is a thrilling sport that combines different fighting styles, offering an intense spectacle of strength, strategy, and agility. As its popularity has surged, so too has the interest in betting on MMA matches. Betting on these fights adds an extra layer of excitement to the viewing experience, turning every punch, kick, and takedown into a high-stakes moment. However, like every form of betting, it requires careful research, strategic thinking, and a disciplined approach.

This guide aims to provide you with valuable strategies to enhance your MMA betting experience, maximize your returns, and minimize risks.

Mastering the Art of Betting on UFC Fights

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) stands as the premier organization in the realm of mixed martial arts, maintaining a leading position for over two decades. Showcasing a melting pot of varied fighting techniques, multiple weight categories, and competition for both genders within its iconic caged octagon, a multitude of elements must be taken into account when predicting the victor who will be triumphant inside the Octagon.

In the United States, betting enthusiasts have a choice between two distinct betting avenues for UFC. They can visit brick-and-mortar sportsbooks, often found in sports pubs or casinos, or they can opt for well-established online sportsbooks, such as BetMGM. Do note that you should be located in a state where sports betting is legally regulated.

Deciphering the Mechanics of UFC Betting

For beginners in the UFC betting scene, understanding the odds may seem daunting. At the core, every UFC fight has just three potential outcomes: victory for the first fighter, victory for the second, or a draw. The most probable outcome receives the lowest odds, while the least likely gets the highest odds.

Higher odds equate to higher potential winnings. Additionally, there are various other betting options linked to specific elements of the fight, such as the method of victory. Each potential outcome in this market is assigned odds based on its perceived likelihood.

Finding the right betting market for you is key. Do your research, study both fighters carefully, and get to know the history of their performances in the octagon before you decide on a particular betting market.

Exploring Various Types of UFC Bets

To simplify the understanding of UFC fights betting, a few illustrations are presented, drawn from real betting markets at BetMGM. For instance, BetMGM's odds suggest a higher likelihood for Dustin Poirier to triumph over Justin Gaethje, as indicated by Poirier's lower odds of -125 against Gaethje's +105.

A $10 bet on Gaethje would yield an extra $2.50 compared to a similar bet on Poirier. Alternatively, one might choose to place multiple bets. One could place a bet on Marcin Tybura defeating Tom Aspinall, while a separate wager could be placed on the "Fight to go the distance market". In such a scenario, in order to win both bets, Marcin Tybura would need to secure a victory via decision.

Key Advice for Success in UFC Betting

We have curated some of the most effective UFC betting strategies that hold true irrespective of whether you are wagering on the main event or the undercard.

Live Betting Often Has Advantageous Odds

Bookmakers determine in-play odds differently, and you could frequently secure better odds during the fight than before it begins.

Be Cautious with Large Bets on Favorites

The UFC is known for its unpredictability, with upsets being a common occurrence. Placing a huge wager on a favorite does not guarantee a significant profit. Always bet with rational thinking, not based on the odds.

Be Strategic in Your Approach

Take into account aspects like age, reach, stance, and fighting styles. Evaluate how each combatant will try to put the other on the back foot. For instance, Clay Guida effectively countered Anthony Pettis's aggressive kicking strategy by keeping him grounded during the Ultimate Fighter 13 final.

Avoid Favoritism

It can be challenging not to root for your preferred fighters, but personal bias should not cloud your judgment when placing bets. If all evidence suggests your favorite is likely to lose, either bet against them or refrain from betting.

Be Aware of the Location

Travel and environmental conditions can significantly impact a fighter's performance. To cite an example, Fabricio Werdum defeated Cain Velasquez at UFC 188, likely due to Velasquez's late arrival and inability to acclimate to the high altitude of Mexico City, whereas Werdum had prepared there in advance.

Harnessing Effective Strategies for UFC Betting

Knowing the basics of UFC betting sets a fair foundation, but utilizing well-grounded MMA betting tactics is a complete game-changer. MMA betting requires careful consideration of multiple variables, and there are several consistently successful strategies applicable to UFC bets.

Follow the Training Camps

Gaining insights into a fighter's training camp can prove invaluable when predicting an upcoming match's outcome. Pay attention to possible signs - for instance, whether a fighter moving up a weight class seems less agile, or if a newbie struggles during sparring. Information about injuries, like concussions during the camp, can significantly impact future performance.

Vicissitudes in Cage Size

Interestingly, UFC employs two different cage sizes. The difference might be subtle, but it influences the game statistics significantly. It has been found that the smaller cage records a 12% increase in finish rate compared to the larger, regular UFC Octagon. This factor becomes especially relevant when betting on UFC Fight Night events, often featuring the smaller cage.

Weigh-in Importance

Careful observation during weigh-ins can highlight crucial elements such as poor weight cuts, where fighters might look sluggish or unwell. Equally important is to check the weight each fighter usually fights at and their off-season weight. Some fighters manage extensive weight cuts effortlessly, while others seem to lose all their punching strength following a hefty weight cut.

Spotting the Signs

Those who opt for live betting often have a keen eye for identifying signs faster than the odds can update. A fight might seem evenly matched by the second round. Still, observant bettors may notice the underdog exploiting a weakness in the favorite, potentially turning the tables in the final round when the underdog's odds are still high.