{ "meta": { "service": "Versus Sports Simulator", "about": "Versus Sports Simulator's projection of a hypothetical 24-team FBS playoff field under the proposed 2027 format, applied to the 2026 season, as a selection committee might pick it, if the rest of the season goes the way Versus expects.", "disclaimer": "A projection produced by the Versus Sports Simulator ratings under a proposed format that has not been approved. The College Football Playoff had not published a 24-team format as of October 17, 2026. ESPN and The Associated Press reported on October 15 and 16, 2026 that the playoff and ESPN had reached a preliminary agreement to expand to 24 teams starting with the 2027 season, pending final approval. The 2026 playoff is still 12 teams.", "sport": "College football", "division": "FBS", "season": "2026-2027", "week": 3, "isLatestWeek": false, "ratingsDate": "2026-09-13", "view": { "pickedBy": "committee", "fieldAsOf": "end-of-season", "description": "Versus Sports Simulator's projection of a hypothetical 24-team FBS playoff field under the proposed 2027 format, applied to the 2026 season, as a selection committee might pick it, if the rest of the season goes the way Versus expects." }, "url": "https://www.versussportssimulator.com/college-football/fbs/playoff-projection/24-team/2026/week-3.json", "htmlUrl": "https://www.versussportssimulator.com/college-football/fbs/playoff-projection/24-team/2026/week-3", "license": "Free to quote with attribution to Versus Sports Simulator and a link to https://www.versussportssimulator.com/college-football/fbs/playoff-projection/24-team/2026/week-3" }, "format": { "name": "24-Team College Football Playoff", "status": "proposed", "checked": "2026-10-17", "summary": { "text": "The College Football Playoff had not published a 24-team format as of October 17, 2026. ESPN and The Associated Press reported on October 15 and 16, 2026 that the playoff and ESPN had reached a preliminary agreement to expand to 24 teams starting with the 2027 season, pending final approval. The 2026 playoff is still 12 teams.", "sources": [ 1, 2, 3 ] }, "reported": [ { "text": "The College Football Playoff grows to 24 teams starting with the 2027 season.", "sources": [ 1, 2, 3 ] }, { "text": "The 24-team field follows a 19+4+1 model: 19 at-large selections, an automatic bid for each of the four Power Four conference champions (the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC), and one automatic bid for a Group of Six team (from the American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt).", "sources": [ 1, 3, 4 ] }, { "text": "In the 24-team format, seeds 1 to 8 receive a first-round bye and then host a second-round game.", "sources": [ 1, 3, 4 ] }, { "text": "In the 24-team format, seeds 9 to 16 host seeds 17 to 24 in the first round. The 1 seed plays the winner of 16 against 17, the 2 seed plays the winner of 15 against 18, and so on.", "sources": [ 1 ] }, { "text": "The first two rounds of the 24-team playoff are played on campus. The quarterfinals and semifinals stay at the New Year's Six bowls, and the national championship stays at a neutral site in January.", "sources": [ 1, 3, 4 ] }, { "text": "The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC no longer play conference championship games, and the season starts one week earlier.", "sources": [ 1, 2, 3 ] } ], "assumed": [ { "text": "The 24-team rules are applied to the 2026 season, so the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC play no championship games this year in this view.", "sources": [] }, { "text": "The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC each crown the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by head-to-head results and then by the Versus rating. The reports say each league decides its own champion but not how.", "sources": [] }, { "text": "The six Group of 6 conferences keep their championship games, because the reports describe only the four larger leagues dropping theirs.", "sources": [] }, { "text": "The Group of 6 bid goes to the highest-ranked team from those six conferences, whether or not it wins its league. ESPN and The Associated Press describe the bid that way, while On3 describes it as going to the top Group of 6 champion. It is the rule the 2026 playoff already uses.", "sources": [ 1, 3, 4 ] }, { "text": "Notre Dame has no guaranteed place. Its 2026 guarantee, a place whenever it ranks in the top 12, has not been reported for the 24-team format, so it competes for an at-large place like any other team.", "sources": [] }, { "text": "Seeding is straight: the eight highest-ranked teams receive the first-round byes whether or not they won a conference.", "sources": [] }, { "text": "The bracket is fixed with no reseeding. In the quarterfinals the 1 seed's side of the bracket meets the 8 seed's, 4 meets 5, 3 meets 6 and 2 meets 7, so the 1 and 4 seeds share a half of the bracket as they do in the 12-team format.", "sources": [] }, { "text": "No bowl is named for any game in the 24-team bracket, because the reports do not say which bowl hosts which game.", "sources": [] } ], "sources": [ { "id": 1, "title": "Sources: College Football Playoff nearing deal for 24-team format in '27", "publisher": "ESPN", "date": "2026-10-15", "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50190410/sources-college-football-playoff-nearing-deal-24-team-format" }, { "id": 2, "title": "CFP reaches 'handshake agreement' with ESPN to air 24-team playoff, sources say", "publisher": "ESPN", "date": "2026-10-16", "url": "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/50198507/espn-lands-handshake-agreement-air-24-team-cfp" }, { "id": 3, "title": "College football closer to a 24-team playoff, AP source says", "publisher": "The Associated Press, published by The Boston Globe", "date": "2026-10-16", "url": "https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/16/sports/college-football-playoff-expansion/" }, { "id": 4, "title": "CFB insiders report bid structure for new 24-team College Football Playoff", "publisher": "Saturday Down South, reporting On3's Pete Nakos, Brett McMurphy and Chris Low", "date": "2026-10-15", "url": "https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/news/college-football/cfb-insiders-report-bid-structure-for-new-24-team-college-football-playoff/" } ], "fieldSize": 24, "byes": 8, "seededThrough": 24, "automaticBids": 5 }, "field": [ { "seed": 1, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Texas", "abbreviation": "TEX", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "automatic", "bidDetail": "SEC champion", "conferenceTitleChance": 28.5, "record": "11-1", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 1, "versusRank": 1, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 1, "strengthOfRecordRank": 1, "playoffChance": 99.3 }, { "seed": 2, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Notre Dame", "abbreviation": "ND", "conference": "FBS Independents", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "11-1", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 2, "versusRank": 4, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 31, "strengthOfRecordRank": 2, "playoffChance": 100 }, { "seed": 3, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Ohio State", "abbreviation": "OSU", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "automatic", "bidDetail": "Big Ten champion", "conferenceTitleChance": 41, "record": "10-2", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 5, "versusRank": 2, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 4, "strengthOfRecordRank": 6, "playoffChance": 99.1 }, { "seed": 4, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Miami FL", "abbreviation": "MIA", "conference": "ACC", "bidType": "automatic", "bidDetail": "ACC champion", "conferenceTitleChance": 62.4, "record": "11-1", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 11, "versusRank": 8, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 39, "strengthOfRecordRank": 8, "playoffChance": 99.8 }, { "seed": 5, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Indiana", "abbreviation": "IND", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "10-2", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 4, "versusRank": 3, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 59, "strengthOfRecordRank": 7, "playoffChance": 99.6 }, { "seed": 6, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Utah", "abbreviation": "UTAH", "conference": "Big 12", "bidType": "automatic", "bidDetail": "Big 12 champion", "conferenceTitleChance": 50, "record": "11-1", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 22, "versusRank": 10, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 50, "strengthOfRecordRank": 11, "playoffChance": 98.7 }, { "seed": 7, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "Alabama", "abbreviation": "ALA", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "10-2", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 7, "versusRank": 5, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 25, "strengthOfRecordRank": 4, "playoffChance": 96.2 }, { "seed": 8, "seeded": true, "bye": true, "team": "LSU", "abbreviation": "LSU", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 9, "versusRank": 6, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 18, "strengthOfRecordRank": 5, "playoffChance": 94 }, { "seed": 9, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Penn State", "abbreviation": "PSU", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "10-2", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 14, "versusRank": 12, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 51, "strengthOfRecordRank": 12, "playoffChance": 98 }, { "seed": 10, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Texas A&M", "abbreviation": "TAMU", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 8, "versusRank": 7, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 38, "strengthOfRecordRank": 3, "playoffChance": 94.3 }, { "seed": 11, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Georgia", "abbreviation": "UGA", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 13, "versusRank": 9, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 52, "strengthOfRecordRank": 9, "playoffChance": 91.1 }, { "seed": 12, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Southern Cal", "abbreviation": "USC", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 12, "versusRank": 11, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 8, "strengthOfRecordRank": 10, "playoffChance": 86.1 }, { "seed": 13, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Kansas St", "abbreviation": "KSU", "conference": "Big 12", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "10-2", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 25, "versusRank": 18, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 36, "strengthOfRecordRank": 14, "playoffChance": 96.8 }, { "seed": 14, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Michigan", "abbreviation": "MICH", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "8-4", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 3, "versusRank": 13, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 13, "strengthOfRecordRank": 16, "playoffChance": 68 }, { "seed": 15, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "SMU", "abbreviation": "SMU", "conference": "ACC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 16, "versusRank": 20, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 28, "strengthOfRecordRank": 17, "playoffChance": 85.6 }, { "seed": 16, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Tennessee", "abbreviation": "TENN", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "8-4", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 21, "versusRank": 16, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 14, "strengthOfRecordRank": 13, "playoffChance": 61.7 }, { "seed": 17, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Virginia", "abbreviation": "UVA", "conference": "ACC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 33, "versusRank": 23, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 67, "strengthOfRecordRank": 24, "playoffChance": 82.2 }, { "seed": 18, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "James Madison", "abbreviation": "JMU", "conference": "Sun Belt", "bidType": "automatic", "bidDetail": "Group of 6 bid, Sun Belt champion", "conferenceTitleChance": 62.5, "record": "12-1", "gamesPlayed": 13, "currentRank": 47, "versusRank": 45, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 110, "strengthOfRecordRank": 44, "playoffChance": 67.8 }, { "seed": 19, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Florida", "abbreviation": "FLA", "conference": "SEC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "8-4", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 28, "versusRank": 19, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 5, "strengthOfRecordRank": 15, "playoffChance": 56.6 }, { "seed": 20, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Pittsburgh", "abbreviation": "PITT", "conference": "ACC", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 26, "versusRank": 26, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 73, "strengthOfRecordRank": 18, "playoffChance": 73.3 }, { "seed": 21, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Iowa", "abbreviation": "IOWA", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "8-4", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 18, "versusRank": 21, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 45, "strengthOfRecordRank": 32, "playoffChance": 69.1 }, { "seed": 22, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Boise St", "abbreviation": "BSU", "conference": "Pac-12", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "10-3", "gamesPlayed": 13, "currentRank": 35, "versusRank": 36, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 72, "strengthOfRecordRank": 41, "playoffChance": 51.3 }, { "seed": 23, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Nebraska", "abbreviation": "NEB", "conference": "Big Ten", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "8-4", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 32, "versusRank": 22, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 32, "strengthOfRecordRank": 25, "playoffChance": 55.1 }, { "seed": 24, "seeded": true, "bye": false, "team": "Texas Tech", "abbreviation": "TTU", "conference": "Big 12", "bidType": "at-large", "bidDetail": "At-large", "conferenceTitleChance": null, "record": "9-3", "gamesPlayed": 12, "currentRank": 20, "versusRank": 29, "strengthOfScheduleRank": 66, "strengthOfRecordRank": 26, "playoffChance": 50.1 } ], "firstTeamsOut": [ { "team": "Brigham Young", "conference": "Big 12", "record": "8-4", "playoffChance": 51.3 }, { "team": "North Texas", "conference": "AAC", "record": "11-2", "playoffChance": 18 }, { "team": "Oregon", "conference": "Big Ten", "record": "7-5", "playoffChance": 43.2 }, { "team": "Mississippi", "conference": "SEC", "record": "7-5", "playoffChance": 43 }, { "team": "Louisville", "conference": "ACC", "record": "8-4", "playoffChance": 27.3 } ], "firstRoundTravel": { "totalMiles": null, "tripsUnder400Miles": null, "trips": null, "milesUnderSeedOrder": null, "games": [] }, "bracket": [ { "round": "First Round", "onCampus": true, "games": [ { "top": "Virginia", "bottom": "Tennessee", "host": "Tennessee", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Tennessee", "favoriteWinChance": 63 }, { "top": "Texas Tech", "bottom": "Penn State", "host": "Penn State", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Penn State", "favoriteWinChance": 75 }, { "top": "Pittsburgh", "bottom": "Kansas St", "host": "Kansas St", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Kansas St", "favoriteWinChance": 66 }, { "top": "Iowa", "bottom": "Southern Cal", "host": "Southern Cal", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Southern Cal", "favoriteWinChance": 67 }, { "top": "Florida", "bottom": "Michigan", "host": "Michigan", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Florida", "favoriteWinChance": 54 }, { "top": "Boise St", "bottom": "Georgia", "host": "Georgia", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Georgia", "favoriteWinChance": 82 }, { "top": "James Madison", "bottom": "SMU", "host": "SMU", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "SMU", "favoriteWinChance": 73 }, { "top": "Nebraska", "bottom": "Texas A&M", "host": "Texas A&M", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Texas A&M", "favoriteWinChance": 78 } ] }, { "round": "Second Round", "onCampus": true, "games": [ { "top": "Texas", "bottom": "Tennessee", "host": "Texas", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Texas", "favoriteWinChance": 78 }, { "top": "LSU", "bottom": "Penn State", "host": "LSU", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "LSU", "favoriteWinChance": 67 }, { "top": "Miami FL", "bottom": "Kansas St", "host": "Miami FL", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Miami FL", "favoriteWinChance": 69 }, { "top": "Indiana", "bottom": "Southern Cal", "host": "Indiana", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Indiana", "favoriteWinChance": 73 }, { "top": "Ohio State", "bottom": "Florida", "host": "Ohio State", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Ohio State", "favoriteWinChance": 79 }, { "top": "Utah", "bottom": "Georgia", "host": "Utah", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Utah", "favoriteWinChance": 59 }, { "top": "Notre Dame", "bottom": "SMU", "host": "Notre Dame", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Notre Dame", "favoriteWinChance": 84 }, { "top": "Alabama", "bottom": "Texas A&M", "host": "Alabama", "neutralSite": false, "favorite": "Alabama", "favoriteWinChance": 56 } ] }, { "round": "Quarterfinals", "onCampus": false, "games": [ { "top": "Texas", "bottom": "LSU", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Texas", "favoriteWinChance": 59 }, { "top": "Miami FL", "bottom": "Indiana", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Indiana", "favoriteWinChance": 52 }, { "top": "Ohio State", "bottom": "Utah", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Ohio State", "favoriteWinChance": 65 }, { "top": "Notre Dame", "bottom": "Alabama", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Notre Dame", "favoriteWinChance": 60 } ] }, { "round": "Semifinals", "onCampus": false, "games": [ { "top": "Texas", "bottom": "Indiana", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Texas", "favoriteWinChance": 55 }, { "top": "Ohio State", "bottom": "Notre Dame", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Notre Dame", "favoriteWinChance": 50 } ] }, { "round": "National Championship", "onCampus": false, "games": [ { "top": "Texas", "bottom": "Notre Dame", "host": null, "neutralSite": true, "favorite": "Notre Dame", "favoriteWinChance": 53 } ] } ] }